We also put forward reasons why the pandemic may increase childbearing, including increased time spent together and a focus on home life among established couples. Meanwhile, increased uncertainties associated with the economic fallout of the pandemic might have deterred people from planning a baby. Young adults may have been particularly affected by this, with fewer opportunities to meet people and form romantic and sexual relationships. For example, national lockdowns sharply reduced socialising. We considered several ways the pandemic might decrease fertility rates. So, what might be happening? In a research article written in 2021, we speculated that the pandemic would not have a uniform effect on fertility rates, but would affect childbearing differently based on a woman’s age. Rates for those in their early 40s have remained stable at a low level.įertility rates by age of mother, England and Wales, 2018-21 The age-specific fertility rate is measured by the number of live births per 1,000 women in the age group.

Among women in their 30s, fertility rates recovered in 2021 after falling in 2020. Among women aged under 25, fertility rates fell and continued to fall through 20. This data shows that the effect of the pandemic on childbearing in England and Wales differed by age. Why don’t most people with COVID need to test for another 30 days, even if they’re re-exposed?.How a mix-and-match vaccine approach could boost immunity to COVID-19.COVID-19 survivors are still at greater risk of heart attacks a year after infection.These age-specific fertility rates are, at the time of writing, only published up to 2021 for England and Wales, and are only available for women. We can find out more about what’s happened if we look at trends in birth rates by mother’s age. Total number of births by month, 2018-21 NRS (2022) ONS (2022) NISRA (2022), Author provided Or perhaps birth rates had reached their lowest point and would have increased, anyway. This recovery might be explained by births taking place where conception had been postponed during the first lockdown. This is despite there having been a second wave of the pandemic in the UK in late 2020 and early 2021.įor England and Wales, the average fertility rate in 2021 was 1.61 children per woman compared with 1.58 in 2020 – the first time since 2012 this figure has increased from one year to the next. Yet from March 2021 onward, the number of monthly births recovered and sometimes exceeded 2019 levels, particularly in the last quarter of 2021. The onset of the pandemic was initially associated with a decline in the number of births, particularly from November 2020 to February 2021. In 2019, fertility rates were slightly higher in England and Wales (1.65) and Northern Ireland (1.82) than in Scotland, but again, these levels were some of the lowest ever recorded. This was the lowest level ever recorded and was significantly lower than the level in 2008 ( around 1.77) before the effects of the economic recession hit. You can see that before the pandemic, the number of births had been falling in all countries of the UK.īy 2019, the average fertility rate for Scotland was 1.37 births per woman.

In the graph below, the number of monthly births are plotted for the years 2018-21 in Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland. The earliest we would have expected COVID to affect people’s decisions to become pregnant would have been February 2020, influencing births on average from November 2020. We finally have some answers – for the UK, at least.īroadly, provisional data from the Office for National Statistics suggests there was a temporary decline in babies conceived during the first three months of the first lockdown in 2020, but then the fertility rate rebounded to levels above those seen in previous years. Many wondered whether the COVID lockdowns would lead to a baby boom or a bust.

Covid baby boom